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RESEARCH PAPER
 
 

Prediction of biological sensors appearance with ARIMA models as a tool for Integrated Pest Management protocols

 
1
Department of Plant Biology and Soil Sciences, Sciences Faculty of Ourense, University of Vigo, Ourense, Spain
2
Department of Informatics, University of Vigo, Ourense, Spain
3
Department of Botany, Pharmacy Faculty, University of Santiago of Compostela, Santiago of Compostela, Spain
Ann Agric Environ Med 2016;23(1):129–137
KEYWORDS:
ABSTRACT:
[b]Introduction and objectives.[/b] Powdery mildew caused by [i]Uncinula necator[/i] and Downy mildew produced by [i]Plasmopara viticola[/i] are the most common diseases in the North-West Spain vineyards. Knowledge of airborne spore concentrations could be a useful tool in the Integrated Pest Management protocols in order to reduce the number of pesticide treatments, applied only when there is a real risk of infection. [b]Material and methods. [/b]The study was carried out in a vineyard of the D. O. Ribeiro, in the North-West Spain, during the grapevine active period 2004–2012. A Hirts-type volumetric spore-trap was used for the aerobiological monitoring. [b]Results.[/b] During the study period the annual total [i]U. necator[/i] spores amount ranged from the 578 spores registered in 2007 to the 4,145 spores sampled during 2008. The highest annual total [i]P. viticola[/i] spores quantity was observed in 2010 (1,548 spores) and the lowest in 2005 (210 spores). In order to forecast the concentration of fungal spores, ARIMA models were elaborated. [b]Conclusions[/b]. The most accurate models were an ARIMA (3.1.3) for [i]U. necator[/i] and (1.0.3) for [i]P. viticola[/i]. The possibility to forecast the spore presence 72 hours in advance open an important horizon for optimizing the organization of the harvest processes in the vineyard.
eISSN:1898-2263
ISSN:1232-1966